Predicting Future Conditions

How is asset deterioration calculated?

When you run a Treatment Set or Works Plan, condition survey data is resampled into fixed-length subsections (as defined in the Treatment Set). This improves processing efficiency and lets CausewayOne Asset Strategy analyse different survey types with varying resolutions.

The future condition of each subsection (if left untreated) is then extrapolated from historic data or a user-defined curve. This is performed for each consecutive year of a Works Plan.

For each Condition Parameter, the last known value is taken from the most recent survey data available for the subsection. By default, a deterioration curve is calculated for the parameter from the trend of all historical values on that subsection. Alternatively, you can define a non-historical deterioration curve: linear, quadratic, useful life or fully custom.

Per Asset Group

Each Condition Parameter has a separate deterioration curve for each of your Asset Groups.

This is because assets are typically grouped by characteristics such as material type, XSP, construction type or traffic load, e.g. A-roads or B-roads, Urban or Rural, Asphalt or Concrete. Different materials have different resistances to wear and weathering. Assets used more often will degrade quicker. Therefore, the rate of deterioration and subsequent timing of maintenance is expected to differ across these Asset Groups.

These are combined to calculate a mean deterioration curve for each Condition Parameter, which describes how the value of condition changes over time.

Calculating a deterioration curve

Future condition can be calculated directly from a historical (or other) deterioration curve for any given Condition Parameter. Using a deterioration curve for forward prediction allows the future condition of each subsection to be individually projected, based on its last known condition value.

In the following diagram:

• x_t is the current condition
• t is the time the subsection has taken to get to this condition (i.e. to now)
• T is a time in the future
• x_t+T is the condition at this future time

Step A is to locate the current condition (x_t) on the curve, which also identifies the time taken to reach that condition (t).

Step B is to calculate the time (T) in the future by moving the required amount along the time line beyond time t.

Step C calculates the corresponding future condition (x_t+T) by referring to the condition value at time T.

By projecting along the curve, the likely future condition can be determined.

Visualise predicted conditions

You can visualise predicted future values of Condition Parameters across your Network in Explorer. Using specially generated Layers, you can display colour-coded overlays on the map, then select a Section to plot its predicted values in the Graphing panel.

To arrange this, please contact Causeway Support.

On the map

To view predicted Condition Parameter data on the map, select the relevant Layer (if available):

1. In the Explorer toolbar, select Layers.

2. Open the folder for the relevant survey type, e.g. SCANNER, SCRIM.

3. Select the desired Condition Parameter Layer for the year of interest.

To learn more, see Layers.

In the Graphing panel

To view predicted Condition Parameter data in the Graphing panel (if available):

1. Select the Section you want to examine.

2. In the Explorer toolbar, select Graphing.

3. Open the folder for the deteriorated data of interest and select the desired Condition Parameter.

To learn more, see Graphing.